Direct Mail Attribution Remapping & Channel Optimization

Project Overview

Upwork's direct mail program had been over-attributing performance due to flawed matching logic in its address-based conversion tracking. I led a forensic audit and redesign of this system, remapping the attribution logic to increase accuracy, transparency, and strategic accountability.

The result: a major budget shift away from inflated channels toward higher-performing and more measurable media investments.

Business Challenge

• Conversion attribution relied on loose 10-character regex logic and a 30-day lookback
• Caused false-positive matches and overreported results (734 vs. actual ~70)
• Created confusion around DM channel effectiveness
• Stakeholders lacked confidence in media performance data

Solution

🔍 Attribution Logic Redesign

• Replaced partial match rules with precise full-address regex logic
• Used deterministic match rules validated against source-of-truth systems
• Resolved address conflicts (e.g., Suite 302 vs. Suite 480) with clean attribution precision

📊 Historical Attribution Reassessment

• Backtested logic against campaigns from 2023–2024
• Discovered true conversions were just 82 (2023) and 67 (2024)
• Original reports had claimed 734 conversions—an 88% inflation

💡 Strategic Reallocation

• Presented findings to CMO and senior stakeholders
• Helped shift budget from direct mail into:
  • Podcast advertising
  • Billboard placements (Palo Alto)
  • Paid media expansion

Conclusion

This engagement not only corrected a critical attribution flaw but also enabled Upwork to confidently reallocate $3M in budget toward high-impact channels. The case highlights the importance of precision in marketing analytics and how rigorous data governance supports smarter, leaner media decisions.